Iran, Islamic Republic of Humanitarian Impact
Live country lens over MarketImpact funding, needs, FX, catalog, and MCP surfaces for humanitarian analysis.
Funding
$56.3M
+56.6% YoY
Flows
75
12 donors
FX Spread
-20.6%
IRR market stress
UNORE Age
13
days since effective rate
Needs
Pending
No current year
Sources
17/22
agent-ready / 4 claim-ready / 0 critical gaps
Daily Audit Snapshot
IRN-2026-2026-07-13 / generated Jul 13, 2026, 03:16 PM
- Evidence Packs
- 4
- Pack Runs
- 4
- Missing Evidence
- 12
- Blocked Claims
- 12
Snapshot is valid only as an audit trail over visible evidence, blocked claims, and missing evidence; it is not a new incident or severity claim.
Agent persistence
29 runs / 8 snapshots
codex / Jun 22, 2026, 05:36 AM
mobility-route-protection-work
mobility-route-protection-work-run
3 safe claims / 3 blocked / 3 missing evidence items
codex / Jun 22, 2026, 05:36 AM
market-access-verification-work
market-access-verification-work-run
3 safe claims / 3 blocked / 3 missing evidence items
codex / Jun 22, 2026, 05:36 AM
procurement-pressure-work
procurement-pressure-work-run
3 safe claims / 3 blocked / 3 missing evidence items
codex / Jun 22, 2026, 05:36 AM
transfer-value-coverage-work
transfer-value-coverage-work-run
3 safe claims / 3 blocked / 3 missing evidence items
codex / Jun 21, 2026, 05:35 AM
mobility-route-protection-work
mobility-route-protection-work-run
3 safe claims / 3 blocked / 3 missing evidence items
codex / Jun 21, 2026, 05:35 AM
market-access-verification-work
market-access-verification-work-run
3 safe claims / 3 blocked / 3 missing evidence items
codex / Jun 21, 2026, 05:35 AM
procurement-pressure-work
procurement-pressure-work-run
3 safe claims / 3 blocked / 3 missing evidence items
codex / Jun 21, 2026, 05:35 AM
transfer-value-coverage-work
transfer-value-coverage-work-run
3 safe claims / 3 blocked / 3 missing evidence items
Latest persisted snapshot: IRN-2026-2026-06-22 / Jun 22, 2026, 05:36 AM
Source Priority Queue
Evidence loads that unlock blocked or watch-only conclusions
transfer-value-coverage-work
transfer-value-needs-blindspot
Required evidence
- Current people-in-need rows for Iran with year and sector metadata
- Usable sector allocations for current-year FTS flows
- Latest FX spread evidence already exposed in the Iran impact payload
fts-funding-flows / fx-spreads / hapi-humanitarian-needs
Current needs and sector-allocation evidence can be cited, or the answer explicitly keeps coverage analysis blocked.
procurement-pressure-work
upstream-route-procurement-pressure
Required evidence
- Live freight or insurance rows if any are available
- Domestic fuel price or availability rows for Iran
- Route-level context kept separate from country logistics claims
fx-spreads / energy-benchmarks / freight-portwatch / trade-commodity-exposure
The note can distinguish upstream context, route context, and verified domestic operating-cost evidence.
market-access-verification-work
market-access-verification-gap
Required evidence
- Current IPC rows before any acute food-insecurity phase claim
- Live market availability or comparable food-basket observations
- Clear separation between verified evidence and media discovery
food-prices / verified-conflict-access-events / vetted-evidence-documents / ipc-food-insecurity
Every access or food-security statement is backed by a row-level source or remains marked as a follow-up lead.
mobility-route-protection-work
mobility-route-protection-watch
Required evidence
- Comparable movement snapshots before any trend statement
- Route or access incident rows before route-closure claims
- Explicit labelling of annual population stock as context only
unhcr-refugee-population / movement-flow-monitoring / trade-flow-exposure / freight-portwatch
The output separates annual exposure, row-specific movement observations, and unverified route disruption hypotheses.
Research Worklist
Agent-ready follow-up tasks with blocked claims carried forward
transfer-value-needs-blindspot
How much current funding value is exposed to FX spread, and which needs rows must be loaded before coverage claims are safe?
Specialists
humanitarian finance / treasury / needs analysis
MCP tools
Required evidence
- Current people-in-need rows for Iran with year and sector metadata
- Usable sector allocations for current-year FTS flows
- Latest FX spread evidence already exposed in the Iran impact payload
Not for
People-in-need coverage gap claims / Sector targeting claims when allocations are unspecified / Causal explanation for donor behaviour
Done when
Current needs and sector-allocation evidence can be cited, or the answer explicitly keeps coverage analysis blocked.
Source handles
fts-funding-flows / fx-spreads / hapi-humanitarian-needs
Signal handles
funding-total / fx-value-gap / needs-denominator
Evidence pack transfer-value-coverage-work / IRN 2026
This pack supports watch analysis only. It cannot be used for: People-in-need coverage gap claims; Sector targeting claims when allocations are unspecified; Causal explanation for donor behaviour.
Analyst run brief
transfer-value-coverage-work-run / Jul 13, 2026, 03:16 PM
Transfer value with needs blind spot remains watch. The pack supports Monitoring donor funding alongside transfer-value stress; Prioritising current needs ingestion before coverage analysis; Briefing agents on why funding totals alone are incomplete and blocks People-in-need coverage gap claims; Sector targeting claims when allocations are unspecified; Causal explanation for donor behaviour until required evidence is present.
Observed signals
- fts-funding-flows/funding-total observed 2027: $56.3M. $56.3M across 75 flows from 12 donors. Limit: Do not use beyond the source status, observed date, and claim boundaries in this pack.
- fx-spreads/fx-value-gap observed 2026-07-13: -20.6%. FX spread is claim-ready for transfer-value stress, not an explanation for funding decisions. Limit: Do not use beyond the source status, observed date, and claim boundaries in this pack.
- hapi-humanitarian-needs/needs-denominator: Missing. Coverage claims remain blocked until current people-in-need rows are loaded. Limit: Missing or stale rows block people-in-need coverage claims.
Cross-disciplinary reading
- Funding totals and FX transfer-value stress are jointly visible, but current people-in-need remains missing, so the useful lead is value-at-risk monitoring rather than coverage analysis.
- Finance, treasury, and needs analysts usually validate different data systems; this lead shows where money, purchasing power, and absent coverage denominators meet.
Evidence still required
- Current people-in-need rows for Iran with year and sector metadata
- Usable sector allocations for current-year FTS flows
- Latest FX spread evidence already exposed in the Iran impact payload
Safe and blocked claims
- Safe: Monitoring donor funding alongside transfer-value stress
- Safe: Prioritising current needs ingestion before coverage analysis
- Safe: Briefing agents on why funding totals alone are incomplete
Call results
data.iran_impact_research_pack
materializedLoaded and materialized in this run response.
fts-funding-flows/funding-total / fx-spreads/fx-value-gap / hapi-humanitarian-needs/needs-denominator
data.run_research_pack
materializedLoaded and materialized in this run response.
fts-funding-flows/funding-total / fx-spreads/fx-value-gap / hapi-humanitarian-needs/needs-denominator
get_iran_impact
partially_materialized_from_packThe current pack contains source rows relevant to this call; use the live MCP call for freshness before final analysis.
fts-funding-flows/funding-total / fx-spreads/fx-value-gap / hapi-humanitarian-needs/needs-denominator
get_humanitarian_needs
partially_materialized_from_packThe current pack contains source rows relevant to this call; use the live MCP call for freshness before final analysis.
hapi-humanitarian-needs/needs-denominator
Citations and stop rule
- fts-funding-flows/funding-total $56.3M / 2027
- fx-spreads/fx-value-gap -20.6% / 2026-07-13
- hapi-humanitarian-needs/needs-denominator Missing
If a required evidence row is missing, mark the conclusion as watch, context-only, missing, or blocked rather than upgrading it.
Next MCP calls
- data.iran_impact_research_pack {"query":{"country":"IRN","year":2026},"slug":"transfer-value-coverage-work"}
Reload this focused evidence pack before writing the answer.
- data.run_research_pack {"name":"transfer-value-coverage-work","query":{"year":2026},"slug":"IRN"}
Load the materialized analyst brief and call-result ledger for this pack.
- get_iran_impact {}
Refresh the full terminal payload before comparing this pack against wider readiness and gaps.
- get_humanitarian_needs {}
Check whether current people-in-need and sector rows now exist.
Source rows
- Current-year funding $56.3M
Funding-flow context for donor and transfer-value monitoring.
Do not use beyond the source status, observed date, and claim boundaries in this pack.
fts-funding-flows / funding-total
- Estimated transfer-value gap -20.6%
Transfer-value stress signal for purchasing-power monitoring.
Do not use beyond the source status, observed date, and claim boundaries in this pack.
fx-spreads / fx-value-gap
- Needs denominator Missing
Needs denominator when current rows exist; otherwise a missing-evidence marker.
Missing or stale rows block people-in-need coverage claims.
hapi-humanitarian-needs / needs-denominator
Safe claims
Monitoring donor funding alongside transfer-value stress / Prioritising current needs ingestion before coverage analysis / Briefing agents on why funding totals alone are incomplete
Blocked claims
People-in-need coverage gap claims / Sector targeting claims when allocations are unspecified / Causal explanation for donor behaviour
Missing evidence
Current people-in-need rows for Iran with year and sector metadata / Usable sector allocations for current-year FTS flows / Latest FX spread evidence already exposed in the Iran impact payload
Answer skeleton
Observed signals
List the source rows, dates, values, and interpretations that are visible in the pack.
Cross-disciplinary reading
Explain the finance, market, logistics, protection, or evidence-verification link without implying causality.
Evidence still required
Name each required evidence item that is missing or not yet citation-ready.
Safe and blocked claims
End with the exact claims that can be used and the exact claims that remain blocked.
If a required evidence row is missing, mark the conclusion as watch, context-only, missing, or blocked rather than upgrading it.
One paragraph stating value-at-risk context, then a coverage-claim readiness checklist.
upstream-route-procurement-pressure
Are upstream commodity, FX, and route signals enough to justify a procurement pressure watch, and what domestic evidence is still missing?
Specialists
procurement / logistics / cash and markets
MCP tools
Required evidence
- Live freight or insurance rows if any are available
- Domestic fuel price or availability rows for Iran
- Route-level context kept separate from country logistics claims
Not for
Domestic fuel shortage claims / Freight or war-risk insurance price shock estimates / Household price pass-through estimates
Done when
The note can distinguish upstream context, route context, and verified domestic operating-cost evidence.
Source handles
fx-spreads / energy-benchmarks / freight-portwatch / trade-commodity-exposure
Signal handles
fx-value-gap / largest-upstream-move / hormuz-route-delta / focus-commodity-exposure
Evidence pack procurement-pressure-work / IRN 2026
This pack supports watch analysis only. It cannot be used for: Domestic fuel shortage claims; Freight or war-risk insurance price shock estimates; Household price pass-through estimates.
Analyst run brief
procurement-pressure-work-run / Jul 13, 2026, 03:16 PM
Upstream route and procurement pressure remains watch. The pack supports Procurement and logistics watchlists; Prioritising freight, insurance, and live fuel data collection; Explaining why upstream context is not yet domestic pass-through and blocks Domestic fuel shortage claims; Freight or war-risk insurance price shock estimates; Household price pass-through estimates until required evidence is present.
Observed signals
- fx-spreads/fx-value-gap observed 2026-07-13: -20.6%. Current FX pressure affects operational purchasing power, not domestic price pass-through by itself. Limit: Do not use beyond the source status, observed date, and claim boundaries in this pack.
- energy-benchmarks/largest-upstream-move observed 2026-06-01: Natural gas, Europe +22.6%. Global benchmark movement is upstream context only; it does not prove domestic fuel, food, or freight pass-through. Limit: Global benchmark only; not domestic price or availability evidence.
- freight-portwatch/hormuz-route-delta observed 2026-07-05: +232.5%. Chokepoint vessel-count deviation is route context, not a freight-rate or access-denial claim. Limit: Route-level context only; not country logistics disruption evidence.
Cross-disciplinary reading
- FX pressure, global energy/fertiliser movement, and Hormuz route deviation can be read together as an aid-procurement pressure lead, but freight, insurance, and live domestic fuel evidence are still missing.
- Procurement, logistics, market, and cash teams each see one part of the cost stack; this lead connects those parts without inventing a pass-through estimate.
Evidence still required
- Live freight or insurance rows if any are available
- Domestic fuel price or availability rows for Iran
- Route-level context kept separate from country logistics claims
Safe and blocked claims
- Safe: Procurement and logistics watchlists
- Safe: Prioritising freight, insurance, and live fuel data collection
- Safe: Explaining why upstream context is not yet domestic pass-through
Call results
data.iran_impact_research_pack
materializedLoaded and materialized in this run response.
fx-spreads/fx-value-gap / energy-benchmarks/largest-upstream-move / freight-portwatch/hormuz-route-delta / trade-commodity-exposure/focus-commodity-exposure
data.run_research_pack
materializedLoaded and materialized in this run response.
fx-spreads/fx-value-gap / energy-benchmarks/largest-upstream-move / freight-portwatch/hormuz-route-delta / trade-commodity-exposure/focus-commodity-exposure
get_iran_impact
partially_materialized_from_packThe current pack contains source rows relevant to this call; use the live MCP call for freshness before final analysis.
fx-spreads/fx-value-gap / energy-benchmarks/largest-upstream-move / freight-portwatch/hormuz-route-delta / trade-commodity-exposure/focus-commodity-exposure
get_commodity_benchmarks
partially_materialized_from_packThe current pack contains source rows relevant to this call; use the live MCP call for freshness before final analysis.
energy-benchmarks/largest-upstream-move
get_logistics_chokepoints
partially_materialized_from_packThe current pack contains source rows relevant to this call; use the live MCP call for freshness before final analysis.
freight-portwatch/hormuz-route-delta
Citations and stop rule
- fx-spreads/fx-value-gap -20.6% / 2026-07-13
- energy-benchmarks/largest-upstream-move Natural gas, Europe +22.6% / 2026-06-01
- freight-portwatch/hormuz-route-delta +232.5% / 2026-07-05
- trade-commodity-exposure/focus-commodity-exposure 0 rows / 2025
If a required evidence row is missing, mark the conclusion as watch, context-only, missing, or blocked rather than upgrading it.
Next MCP calls
- data.iran_impact_research_pack {"query":{"country":"IRN","year":2026},"slug":"procurement-pressure-work"}
Reload this focused evidence pack before writing the answer.
- data.run_research_pack {"name":"procurement-pressure-work","query":{"year":2026},"slug":"IRN"}
Load the materialized analyst brief and call-result ledger for this pack.
- get_iran_impact {}
Refresh the full terminal payload before comparing this pack against wider readiness and gaps.
- get_commodity_benchmarks {}
Inspect upstream energy, food, and fertiliser benchmark context.
- get_logistics_chokepoints {}
Inspect route-level chokepoint counts and deviations.
Source rows
- Transfer-value gap -20.6%
Transfer-value stress signal for purchasing-power monitoring.
Do not use beyond the source status, observed date, and claim boundaries in this pack.
fx-spreads / fx-value-gap
- Largest upstream move Natural gas, Europe +22.6%
Global upstream commodity context for procurement watch questions.
Global benchmark only; not domestic price or availability evidence.
energy-benchmarks / largest-upstream-move
- Hormuz route delta +232.5%
Route-level maritime context for chokepoint monitoring.
Route-level context only; not country logistics disruption evidence.
freight-portwatch / hormuz-route-delta
- Focus-country commodity exposure 0 rows
Structural trade exposure context.
Structural or route exposure only; not live disruption evidence.
trade-commodity-exposure / focus-commodity-exposure
Safe claims
Procurement and logistics watchlists / Prioritising freight, insurance, and live fuel data collection / Explaining why upstream context is not yet domestic pass-through
Blocked claims
Domestic fuel shortage claims / Freight or war-risk insurance price shock estimates / Household price pass-through estimates
Missing evidence
Live freight or insurance rows if any are available / Domestic fuel price or availability rows for Iran / Route-level context kept separate from country logistics claims
Answer skeleton
Observed signals
List the source rows, dates, values, and interpretations that are visible in the pack.
Cross-disciplinary reading
Explain the finance, market, logistics, protection, or evidence-verification link without implying causality.
Evidence still required
Name each required evidence item that is missing or not yet citation-ready.
Safe and blocked claims
End with the exact claims that can be used and the exact claims that remain blocked.
If a required evidence row is missing, mark the conclusion as watch, context-only, missing, or blocked rather than upgrading it.
Short watch note with observed signals, missing domestic evidence, and blocked cost-shock claims.
market-access-verification-gap
Which verified events, vetted documents, media discovery rows, and market-price observations justify market-access follow-up without implying food-security severity?
Specialists
food security / access analysis / evidence verification
MCP tools
Required evidence
- Current IPC rows before any acute food-insecurity phase claim
- Live market availability or comparable food-basket observations
- Clear separation between verified evidence and media discovery
Not for
IPC Phase 3+ claims / Household food-basket inflation / Causal attribution between conflict events and prices
Done when
Every access or food-security statement is backed by a row-level source or remains marked as a follow-up lead.
Source handles
food-prices / verified-conflict-access-events / vetted-evidence-documents / ipc-food-insecurity
Signal handles
food-price-rows / verified-event-rows / vetted-and-media-evidence / ipc-currentness
Evidence pack market-access-verification-work / IRN 2026
This pack supports watch analysis only. It cannot be used for: IPC Phase 3+ claims; Household food-basket inflation; Causal attribution between conflict events and prices.
Analyst run brief
market-access-verification-work-run / Jul 13, 2026, 03:16 PM
Market access verification gap remains watch. The pack supports Investigation leads for market access constraints; Separating verified rows from media discovery; Prioritising IPC and live market-availability ingestion and blocks IPC Phase 3+ claims; Household food-basket inflation; Causal attribution between conflict events and prices until required evidence is present.
Observed signals
- food-prices/food-price-rows observed 2026-03-15: 30 rows. Market-price rows support row-specific price context, not household food-basket inflation by themselves. Limit: Price rows alone do not prove household food-basket inflation or market availability.
- verified-conflict-access-events/verified-event-rows observed 2026-04-04: 32 rows. Verified events can support row-specific access/conflict observations within their source scope. Limit: Do not use beyond the source status, observed date, and claim boundaries in this pack.
- vetted-evidence-documents/vetted-and-media-evidence observed 2026-06-11T00:00:00Z: 5 vetted docs / 900 media rows. Vetted documents support citation; media rows support discovery and need review before operational claims. Limit: Do not use beyond the source status, observed date, and claim boundaries in this pack.
Cross-disciplinary reading
- Food-price observations, verified event rows, vetted documents, and media discovery can point analysts toward market-access questions, but missing IPC blocks acute food-insecurity conclusions.
- Food-security specialists, access analysts, and media monitors work from different evidence standards; this lead keeps discovery, verification, and claim readiness separated.
Evidence still required
- Current IPC rows before any acute food-insecurity phase claim
- Live market availability or comparable food-basket observations
- Clear separation between verified evidence and media discovery
Safe and blocked claims
- Safe: Investigation leads for market access constraints
- Safe: Separating verified rows from media discovery
- Safe: Prioritising IPC and live market-availability ingestion
Call results
data.iran_impact_research_pack
materializedLoaded and materialized in this run response.
food-prices/food-price-rows / verified-conflict-access-events/verified-event-rows / vetted-evidence-documents/vetted-and-media-evidence / ipc-food-insecurity/ipc-currentness
data.run_research_pack
materializedLoaded and materialized in this run response.
food-prices/food-price-rows / verified-conflict-access-events/verified-event-rows / vetted-evidence-documents/vetted-and-media-evidence / ipc-food-insecurity/ipc-currentness
get_iran_impact
partially_materialized_from_packThe current pack contains source rows relevant to this call; use the live MCP call for freshness before final analysis.
food-prices/food-price-rows / verified-conflict-access-events/verified-event-rows / vetted-evidence-documents/vetted-and-media-evidence / ipc-food-insecurity/ipc-currentness
get_food_market_prices
partially_materialized_from_packThe current pack contains source rows relevant to this call; use the live MCP call for freshness before final analysis.
food-prices/food-price-rows
get_verified_conflict_access_events
partially_materialized_from_packThe current pack contains source rows relevant to this call; use the live MCP call for freshness before final analysis.
verified-conflict-access-events/verified-event-rows
Citations and stop rule
- food-prices/food-price-rows 30 rows / 2026-03-15
- verified-conflict-access-events/verified-event-rows 32 rows / 2026-04-04
- vetted-evidence-documents/vetted-and-media-evidence 5 vetted docs / 900 media rows / 2026-06-11T00:00:00Z
- ipc-food-insecurity/ipc-currentness Missing
If a required evidence row is missing, mark the conclusion as watch, context-only, missing, or blocked rather than upgrading it.
Next MCP calls
- data.iran_impact_research_pack {"query":{"country":"IRN","year":2026},"slug":"market-access-verification-work"}
Reload this focused evidence pack before writing the answer.
- data.run_research_pack {"name":"market-access-verification-work","query":{"year":2026},"slug":"IRN"}
Load the materialized analyst brief and call-result ledger for this pack.
- get_iran_impact {}
Refresh the full terminal payload before comparing this pack against wider readiness and gaps.
- get_food_market_prices {}
Inspect food-price observation rows.
- get_verified_conflict_access_events {}
Inspect row-specific verified incident and access evidence.
Source rows
- Food price rows 30 rows
Market-price observation context.
Price rows alone do not prove household food-basket inflation or market availability.
food-prices / food-price-rows
- Verified event rows 32 rows
Row-specific verified incident or access evidence.
Do not use beyond the source status, observed date, and claim boundaries in this pack.
verified-conflict-access-events / verified-event-rows
- Evidence corpus 5 vetted docs / 900 media rows
Analyst-vetted document evidence and citation lineage.
Do not use beyond the source status, observed date, and claim boundaries in this pack.
vetted-evidence-documents / vetted-and-media-evidence
- IPC currentness Missing
Food-security severity evidence when current IPC rows exist.
Missing or stale IPC rows block Phase 3+ severity claims.
ipc-food-insecurity / ipc-currentness
Safe claims
Investigation leads for market access constraints / Separating verified rows from media discovery / Prioritising IPC and live market-availability ingestion
Blocked claims
IPC Phase 3+ claims / Household food-basket inflation / Causal attribution between conflict events and prices
Missing evidence
Current IPC rows before any acute food-insecurity phase claim / Live market availability or comparable food-basket observations / Clear separation between verified evidence and media discovery
Answer skeleton
Observed signals
List the source rows, dates, values, and interpretations that are visible in the pack.
Cross-disciplinary reading
Explain the finance, market, logistics, protection, or evidence-verification link without implying causality.
Evidence still required
Name each required evidence item that is missing or not yet citation-ready.
Safe and blocked claims
End with the exact claims that can be used and the exact claims that remain blocked.
If a required evidence row is missing, mark the conclusion as watch, context-only, missing, or blocked rather than upgrading it.
Evidence table grouped as verified, vetted, discovery, and missing; finish with safe and blocked claims.
mobility-route-protection-watch
Do annual displacement stock, movement observations, trade-flow context, and route signals point to protection follow-up without becoming a live displacement trend?
Specialists
protection / border monitoring / logistics
MCP tools
Required evidence
- Comparable movement snapshots before any trend statement
- Route or access incident rows before route-closure claims
- Explicit labelling of annual population stock as context only
Not for
Live displacement totals / Movement trend claims without comparable observations / Route-closure or access-denial claims without row-specific evidence
Done when
The output separates annual exposure, row-specific movement observations, and unverified route disruption hypotheses.
Source handles
unhcr-refugee-population / movement-flow-monitoring / trade-flow-exposure / freight-portwatch
Signal handles
iran-hosted-refugees / movement-observation-rows / trade-flow-rows / hormuz-route-delta
Evidence pack mobility-route-protection-work / IRN 2026
This pack supports watch analysis only. It cannot be used for: Live displacement totals; Movement trend claims without comparable observations; Route-closure or access-denial claims without row-specific evidence.
Analyst run brief
mobility-route-protection-work-run / Jul 13, 2026, 03:16 PM
Mobility route protection watch remains watch. The pack supports Prioritising border and route-monitoring questions; Separating annual population exposure from live movement observations; Protection and logistics follow-up planning and blocks Live displacement totals; Movement trend claims without comparable observations; Route-closure or access-denial claims without row-specific evidence until required evidence is present.
Observed signals
- unhcr-refugee-population/iran-hosted-refugees observed 2025: 770.5K. Annual population stock supports exposure context; it is not a live displacement-flow count. Limit: Annual stock only; not live displacement or movement trend evidence.
- movement-flow-monitoring/movement-observation-rows observed 2026-06-06: 1 row. Movement observations are row-specific and must not be summed with annual UNHCR stock. Limit: Single-row movement observations do not prove a trend without comparable snapshots.
- trade-flow-exposure/trade-flow-rows observed 2026-07-03: 201 rows. Country maritime flow rows are exposure context, not verified route closure or humanitarian access evidence. Limit: Structural or route exposure only; not live disruption evidence.
Cross-disciplinary reading
- Annual refugee-hosting exposure, a verified movement observation, country trade-flow context, and Hormuz deviation create a protection/logistics follow-up lead, not a live movement trend.
- Protection, border, logistics, and maritime specialists hold separate evidence slices; this lead makes the shared exposure question visible while preventing double-counted movement claims.
Evidence still required
- Comparable movement snapshots before any trend statement
- Route or access incident rows before route-closure claims
- Explicit labelling of annual population stock as context only
Safe and blocked claims
- Safe: Prioritising border and route-monitoring questions
- Safe: Separating annual population exposure from live movement observations
- Safe: Protection and logistics follow-up planning
Call results
data.iran_impact_research_pack
materializedLoaded and materialized in this run response.
unhcr-refugee-population/iran-hosted-refugees / movement-flow-monitoring/movement-observation-rows / trade-flow-exposure/trade-flow-rows / freight-portwatch/hormuz-route-delta
data.run_research_pack
materializedLoaded and materialized in this run response.
unhcr-refugee-population/iran-hosted-refugees / movement-flow-monitoring/movement-observation-rows / trade-flow-exposure/trade-flow-rows / freight-portwatch/hormuz-route-delta
get_iran_impact
partially_materialized_from_packThe current pack contains source rows relevant to this call; use the live MCP call for freshness before final analysis.
unhcr-refugee-population/iran-hosted-refugees / movement-flow-monitoring/movement-observation-rows / trade-flow-exposure/trade-flow-rows / freight-portwatch/hormuz-route-delta
get_displacement_population
partially_materialized_from_packThe current pack contains source rows relevant to this call; use the live MCP call for freshness before final analysis.
unhcr-refugee-population/iran-hosted-refugees
get_movement_flow_monitoring
partially_materialized_from_packThe current pack contains source rows relevant to this call; use the live MCP call for freshness before final analysis.
movement-flow-monitoring/movement-observation-rows
Citations and stop rule
- unhcr-refugee-population/iran-hosted-refugees 770.5K / 2025
- movement-flow-monitoring/movement-observation-rows 1 row / 2026-06-06
- trade-flow-exposure/trade-flow-rows 201 rows / 2026-07-03
- freight-portwatch/hormuz-route-delta +232.5% / 2026-07-05
If a required evidence row is missing, mark the conclusion as watch, context-only, missing, or blocked rather than upgrading it.
Next MCP calls
- data.iran_impact_research_pack {"query":{"country":"IRN","year":2026},"slug":"mobility-route-protection-work"}
Reload this focused evidence pack before writing the answer.
- data.run_research_pack {"name":"mobility-route-protection-work","query":{"year":2026},"slug":"IRN"}
Load the materialized analyst brief and call-result ledger for this pack.
- get_iran_impact {}
Refresh the full terminal payload before comparing this pack against wider readiness and gaps.
- get_displacement_population {}
Inspect annual UNHCR population-stock context.
- get_movement_flow_monitoring {}
Inspect row-specific movement-flow observations.
Source rows
- Iran hosted refugees 770.5K
Annual displacement population stock context.
Annual stock only; not live displacement or movement trend evidence.
unhcr-refugee-population / iran-hosted-refugees
- Movement observations 1 row
Row-specific movement observation evidence.
Single-row movement observations do not prove a trend without comparable snapshots.
movement-flow-monitoring / movement-observation-rows
- Country trade-flow rows 201 rows
Structural trade exposure context.
Structural or route exposure only; not live disruption evidence.
trade-flow-exposure / trade-flow-rows
- Hormuz route delta +232.5%
Route-level maritime context for chokepoint monitoring.
Route-level context only; not country logistics disruption evidence.
freight-portwatch / hormuz-route-delta
Safe claims
Prioritising border and route-monitoring questions / Separating annual population exposure from live movement observations / Protection and logistics follow-up planning
Blocked claims
Live displacement totals / Movement trend claims without comparable observations / Route-closure or access-denial claims without row-specific evidence
Missing evidence
Comparable movement snapshots before any trend statement / Route or access incident rows before route-closure claims / Explicit labelling of annual population stock as context only
Answer skeleton
Observed signals
List the source rows, dates, values, and interpretations that are visible in the pack.
Cross-disciplinary reading
Explain the finance, market, logistics, protection, or evidence-verification link without implying causality.
Evidence still required
Name each required evidence item that is missing or not yet citation-ready.
Safe and blocked claims
End with the exact claims that can be used and the exact claims that remain blocked.
If a required evidence row is missing, mark the conclusion as watch, context-only, missing, or blocked rather than upgrading it.
Protection/logistics follow-up note with annual context, movement rows, route context, and blocked claims.
Correlation Watch
Evidence-backed multidisciplinary leads, not finished claims
Transfer value with needs blind spot
Confidence medium
Funding totals and FX transfer-value stress are jointly visible, but current people-in-need remains missing, so the useful lead is value-at-risk monitoring rather than coverage analysis.
Finance, treasury, and needs analysts usually validate different data systems; this lead shows where money, purchasing power, and absent coverage denominators meet.
Current-year funding
$56.3M
$56.3M across 75 flows from 12 donors.
fts-funding-flows / 2027
Estimated transfer-value gap
-20.6%
FX spread is claim-ready for transfer-value stress, not an explanation for funding decisions.
fx-spreads / 2026-07-13
Needs denominator
Missing
Coverage claims remain blocked until current people-in-need rows are loaded.
hapi-humanitarian-needs
Use for
Monitoring donor funding alongside transfer-value stress / Prioritising current needs ingestion before coverage analysis / Briefing agents on why funding totals alone are incomplete
Not for
People-in-need coverage gap claims / Sector targeting claims when allocations are unspecified / Causal explanation for donor behaviour
Load current people-in-need rows and usable sector allocations before converting this lead into a coverage or targeting claim.
Upstream route and procurement pressure
Confidence medium
FX pressure, global energy/fertiliser movement, and Hormuz route deviation can be read together as an aid-procurement pressure lead, but freight, insurance, and live domestic fuel evidence are still missing.
Procurement, logistics, market, and cash teams each see one part of the cost stack; this lead connects those parts without inventing a pass-through estimate.
Transfer-value gap
-20.6%
Current FX pressure affects operational purchasing power, not domestic price pass-through by itself.
fx-spreads / 2026-07-13
Largest upstream move
Natural gas, Europe +22.6%
Global benchmark movement is upstream context only; it does not prove domestic fuel, food, or freight pass-through.
energy-benchmarks / 2026-06-01
Hormuz route delta
+232.5%
Chokepoint vessel-count deviation is route context, not a freight-rate or access-denial claim.
freight-portwatch / 2026-07-05
Focus-country commodity exposure
0 rows
Annual commodity-exposure rows remain structural context; missing focus-country rows must not be treated as zero exposure.
trade-commodity-exposure / 2025
Use for
Procurement and logistics watchlists / Prioritising freight, insurance, and live fuel data collection / Explaining why upstream context is not yet domestic pass-through
Not for
Domestic fuel shortage claims / Freight or war-risk insurance price shock estimates / Household price pass-through estimates
Add live freight, insurance, and domestic fuel availability or price rows before estimating operating-cost shock size.
Market access verification gap
Confidence low
Food-price observations, verified event rows, vetted documents, and media discovery can point analysts toward market-access questions, but missing IPC blocks acute food-insecurity conclusions.
Food-security specialists, access analysts, and media monitors work from different evidence standards; this lead keeps discovery, verification, and claim readiness separated.
Food price rows
30 rows
Market-price rows support row-specific price context, not household food-basket inflation by themselves.
food-prices / 2026-03-15
Verified event rows
32 rows
Verified events can support row-specific access/conflict observations within their source scope.
verified-conflict-access-events / 2026-04-04
Evidence corpus
5 vetted docs / 900 media rows
Vetted documents support citation; media rows support discovery and need review before operational claims.
vetted-evidence-documents / 2026-06-11T00:00:00Z
IPC currentness
Missing
IPC Phase 3+ claims remain blocked when IPC is missing or stale.
ipc-food-insecurity
Use for
Investigation leads for market access constraints / Separating verified rows from media discovery / Prioritising IPC and live market-availability ingestion
Not for
IPC Phase 3+ claims / Household food-basket inflation / Causal attribution between conflict events and prices
Add current IPC and live market-availability evidence before using this lead for food-security severity or shortage claims.
Mobility route protection watch
Confidence medium
Annual refugee-hosting exposure, a verified movement observation, country trade-flow context, and Hormuz deviation create a protection/logistics follow-up lead, not a live movement trend.
Protection, border, logistics, and maritime specialists hold separate evidence slices; this lead makes the shared exposure question visible while preventing double-counted movement claims.
Iran hosted refugees
770.5K
Annual population stock supports exposure context; it is not a live displacement-flow count.
unhcr-refugee-population / 2025
Movement observations
1 row
Movement observations are row-specific and must not be summed with annual UNHCR stock.
movement-flow-monitoring / 2026-06-06
Country trade-flow rows
201 rows
Country maritime flow rows are exposure context, not verified route closure or humanitarian access evidence.
trade-flow-exposure / 2026-07-03
Hormuz route delta
+232.5%
Route-level deviation helps prioritise follow-up, but does not prove movement disruption.
freight-portwatch / 2026-07-05
Use for
Prioritising border and route-monitoring questions / Separating annual population exposure from live movement observations / Protection and logistics follow-up planning
Not for
Live displacement totals / Movement trend claims without comparable observations / Route-closure or access-denial claims without row-specific evidence
Add comparable movement snapshots and route/access evidence before claiming a movement trend or route disruption.
Cross-Domain Lenses
Multidisciplinary signals with explicit claim boundaries
Funding transfer value
Confidence medium
Funding-flow totals and live FX spreads can be read together to monitor real-value transfer pressure, but needs coverage remains a separate test.
Humanitarian finance and treasury specialists usually inspect funding and exchange rates separately; combining them shows whether committed money is reaching operations at expected value.
Current-year funding
$56.3M
$56.3M across 75 flows from 12 donors.
fts-funding-flows / 2027
Estimated transfer-value gap
-20.6%
FX spread is claim-ready for transfer-value stress, not an explanation for funding decisions.
fx-spreads / 2026-07-13
Needs denominator
Missing
Coverage claims remain blocked until current people-in-need rows are loaded.
hapi-humanitarian-needs
Funding volume
liveFTS funding flows
2027
Transfer-value stress
liveFX purchasing power spreads
2026-07-13
Official operational rate
liveUN operational exchange rates
2026-07-13
Market reference
liveMarket spot FX rates
2026-07-13
Parallel-market proxy
liveStablecoin and P2P FX routes
2026-07-13
Coverage denominator
missingHAPI humanitarian needs
Use for
Funding totals and donor movement / Transfer-value stress monitoring / Prioritising needs-data refresh for coverage analysis
Not for
Causal explanation for funding changes / Sector coverage claims without usable sector allocations / People-in-need coverage gap claims
Load current needs rows before comparing funding, transfer-value stress, and population coverage in one claim.
Energy, logistics, and aid-delivery pressure
Confidence medium
FX spreads, global commodity benchmarks, historical fuel baselines, chokepoints, and trade exposure point to an aid-delivery cost-pressure watchlist, not a quantified domestic pass-through estimate.
Energy, shipping, trade, and cash-transfer teams hold different parts of the operating-cost picture; this lens shows where those pressures may converge before they are visible in a single sector dataset.
Transfer-value gap
-20.6%
Current FX pressure affects operational purchasing power, not domestic price pass-through by itself.
fx-spreads / 2026-07-13
Largest upstream move
Natural gas, Europe +22.6%
Global benchmark movement is upstream context only; it does not prove domestic fuel, food, or freight pass-through.
energy-benchmarks / 2026-06-01
Hormuz route delta
+232.5%
Chokepoint vessel-count deviation is route context, not a freight-rate or access-denial claim.
freight-portwatch / 2026-07-05
Focus-country commodity exposure
0 rows
Annual commodity-exposure rows remain structural context; missing focus-country rows must not be treated as zero exposure.
trade-commodity-exposure / 2025
Transfer-value stress
liveFX purchasing power spreads
2026-07-13
Global upstream commodity context
liveGlobal commodity and energy benchmarks
2026-06-01
Historical domestic fuel baseline
liveDomestic fuel price baselines
2025-03-01
Route-level chokepoint context
liveFreight, ports, and chokepoints
2026-07-05
Country maritime exposure
liveCountry trade-flow exposure
2026-07-03
Annual commodity import exposure
liveCommodity import/export exposure
2025
Use for
Cost-pressure watchlists / Questions linking transfer value, commodities, and route exposure / Prioritising freight, insurance, and live fuel-source collection
Not for
Domestic fuel shortage claims / Domestic retail fuel price changes after the crisis date / Freight or war-risk insurance price shock estimates / Household price pass-through estimates
Add live domestic fuel, freight, and insurance-price rows before treating this watchlist as a quantified operating-cost claim.
Market access, food, and fuel
Confidence low
Food-price observations, historical fuel baselines, verified event rows, and vetted/media evidence can be triangulated for market-access questions, but they do not establish household food insecurity or live fuel shortages.
Food-security, market-monitoring, and access analysts often work from separate evidence streams; this lens keeps them connected while preserving claim boundaries.
Food price rows
30 rows
Market-price rows support row-specific price context, not household food-basket inflation by themselves.
food-prices / 2026-03-15
Verified event rows
32 rows
Verified events can support row-specific access/conflict observations within their source scope.
verified-conflict-access-events / 2026-04-04
Evidence corpus
5 vetted docs / 900 media rows
Vetted documents support citation; media rows support discovery and need review before operational claims.
vetted-evidence-documents / 2026-06-11T00:00:00Z
IPC currentness
Missing
IPC Phase 3+ claims remain blocked when IPC is missing or stale.
ipc-food-insecurity
Food market observations
currentFood prices and market baskets
2026-03-15
Historical fuel baseline
liveDomestic fuel price baselines
2025-03-01
Domestic market signal contract
liveDomestic market and pass-through signals
2026-03-15
Verified conflict/access observations
liveVerified conflict and access events
2026-04-04
Analyst-vetted citation evidence
liveAnalyst-vetted evidence documents
2026-06-11T00:00:00Z
Media discovery
liveGDELT media evidence pulse
2026-07-09T00:00:00Z
Use for
Market-access research questions / Row-specific food-price and access-event context / Finding evidence that needs analyst review
Not for
IPC Phase 3+ claims when IPC is missing or stale / Household food-basket inflation / Live fuel shortage or availability claims / Causal attribution between conflict events and prices
Load current IPC and live market-availability rows before using this lens for food-security or shortage claims.
Mobility and route exposure
Confidence medium
UNHCR population stock, verified movement observations, chokepoint monitoring, trade-flow exposure, and event rows can be read as a regional mobility-route exposure watchlist.
Protection, logistics, and access teams see different slices of movement risk; combining population stock, movement observations, route exposure, and event data highlights where follow-up evidence should be gathered.
Iran hosted refugees
770.5K
Annual population stock supports exposure context; it is not a live displacement-flow count.
unhcr-refugee-population / 2025
Movement observations
1 row
Movement observations are row-specific and must not be summed with annual UNHCR stock.
movement-flow-monitoring / 2026-06-06
Country trade-flow rows
201 rows
Country maritime flow rows are exposure context, not verified route closure or humanitarian access evidence.
trade-flow-exposure / 2026-07-03
Hormuz route delta
+232.5%
Route-level deviation helps prioritise follow-up, but does not prove movement disruption.
freight-portwatch / 2026-07-05
Annual population stock
liveUNHCR displacement populations
2025
Verified movement observations
liveMovement flow monitoring
2026-06-06
Route-level chokepoint context
liveFreight, ports, and chokepoints
2026-07-05
Country maritime exposure
liveCountry trade-flow exposure
2026-07-03
Verified conflict/access observations
liveVerified conflict and access events
2026-04-04
Use for
Regional mobility-route watchlists / Separating annual exposure context from live movement observations / Prioritising border, evacuation, and access evidence collection
Not for
Summed displacement totals across overlapping source periods / Movement trend claims without comparable observations / Route-closure or access-denial claims without row-specific evidence
Add comparable movement snapshots and route/access evidence before making trend or closure claims.
Impact Assessment
Iran, Islamic Republic of / IRN / generated Jul 13, 2026, 03:16 PM
Funding
usableFunding magnitude and donors are available.
Confidence medium
Needs
missingCurrent Iran people-in-need values are not exposed in the live HAPI-backed view.
Confidence low
Food security
missingCurrent Iran IPC acute food-insecurity rows are not exposed.
Confidence low
FX stress
usableLatest FX spread data is fresh and uses already-effective UNORE rates.
Confidence high
Energy and commodities
usableWorld Bank Pink Sheet benchmarks are live for upstream crude, gas, food, and fertiliser shock monitoring. Latest benchmark month: 2026-06-01. Verified domestic market signals are also present; use only rows whose signal_type and source methodology support domestic price or pass-through claims. Historical domestic fuel baselines are present, but they are not live war-period price or pass-through evidence.
Confidence medium
Logistics and chokepoints
partialIMF PortWatch chokepoint vessel counts, country maritime trade-flow exposure, and annual Comtrade commodity-import exposure are live as context, but freight price, insurance-risk, and domestic pass-through signals remain gaps. Latest transit date: 2026-07-05. Latest trade-flow date: 2026-07-03. Latest commodity exposure year: 2025.
Confidence medium
Displacement context
usableVerified movement-flow observations are live; annual UNHCR population stock remains context and must not be summed into live flow counts. Latest movement observation: 2026-06-06.
Confidence medium
Cited conflict impact
usableCritical evidence and event sources are live.
Confidence medium
Agent Surface
data://terminal/iran-impact
data.iran_impact
data.impact
data.run_research_pack
get_iran_impact
/api/data/query/impact/IRN?year=2026
Country Context
- Region
- Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan
- Income
- Upper middle income
- FX Tier
- primary
- Parallel Market
- Yes
Claim Readiness
Funding flow claims
claim_readyFTS funding flow summaries are exposed as canonical rows.
Active source handles
FTS funding flows
live/api/funding/query/home
funding.dashboard
funding.donors
funding.countries
Humanitarian needs claims
missingNo needs rows are exposed for this country.
Not for: Narrative claims until the required source is live.
Food-security claims
context_onlyCurrent HAPI/WFP food-price observations are exposed, but IPC acute food-insecurity rows are not current.
Active source handles
Food prices and market baskets
current/api/data/query/food-prices
data://food/market-prices
data.food.market_prices
get_food_market_prices
Not for: Household food-basket inflation, Market price trends, IPC Phase 3+ claims, Analyzed-population claims
FX purchasing-power claims
claim_readyFresh computed FX spreads are exposed for the country.
Active source handles
UN operational exchange rates
live/api/fx/query/unore-dashboard
fx.pipeline_status
Market spot FX rates
live/api/fx/query/latest-spreads
fx.latest_spreads
Stablecoin and P2P FX routes
live/api/fx/query/latest-spreads
fx.latest_spreads
fx.countries.list
FX purchasing power spreads
live/api/fx/query/latest-spreads
fx.latest_spreads
fx.weekly_snapshot
fx.country.history
Conflict-impact claims
claim_readyVetted evidence and verified conflict/access event streams are available; claims must stay tied to the row-specific event type and source scope.
Active source handles
Analyst-vetted evidence documents
live/api/data/query/evidence/vetted-documents
data://evidence/vetted-documents
data.evidence.vetted_documents
get_vetted_evidence_documents
GDELT media evidence pulse
live/api/data/query/evidence/gdelt
data://evidence/gdelt
data.evidence.gdelt
get_gdelt_evidence
Verified conflict and access events
live/api/data/query/evidence/verified-conflict-access-events
data://evidence/verified-conflict-access-events
data.evidence.verified_conflict_access_events
get_verified_conflict_access_events
Not for: Casualty totals beyond the verified event row scope, Attribution of infrastructure damage beyond source text, Trend claims without comparable verified event coverage
Commodity shock claims
context_onlyWorld Bank Pink Sheet benchmarks, annual Comtrade commodity-import exposure, and selected-year HAPI/WFP market food-price observations are live, but pass-through remains a separate gap. Verified domestic market signals are available; use them only for the specific country/date/commodity/signal_type they cover. Historical World Bank domestic fuel baselines are available, but they are not live war-period price or pass-through evidence.
Active source handles
Global commodity and energy benchmarks
live/api/data/query/commodity-benchmarks
data://commodities/benchmarks
data.commodities.benchmarks
get_commodity_benchmarks
Commodity import/export exposure
live/api/data/query/trade/commodity-exposure
data://trade/commodity-exposure
data.trade.commodity_exposure
get_trade_commodity_exposure
Food prices and market baskets
current/api/data/query/food-prices
data://food/market-prices
data.food.market_prices
get_food_market_prices
Domestic market and pass-through signals
live/api/data/query/markets/domestic-signals
data://markets/domestic-signals
data.markets.domestic_signals
get_domestic_market_signals
Domestic fuel price baselines
live/api/data/query/markets/domestic-signals?channel=fuel
data://markets/domestic-signals
data.markets.domestic_signals
get_domestic_market_signals
Not for: Domestic retail fuel prices, Household food-basket inflation, Country pass-through estimates, Current supply disruption, Commodity-specific domestic shortage claims, Live domestic fuel-price changes, Fuel shortage or availability claims
Logistics disruption claims
context_onlyPortWatch and/or annual commodity exposure context is live, but freight-price, insurance, port-throughput, verified disruption, and domestic pass-through signals remain separate gaps.
Active source handles
Freight, ports, and chokepoints
live/api/data/query/logistics/chokepoints
data://logistics/chokepoints
data.logistics.chokepoints
get_logistics_chokepoints
Country trade-flow exposure
live/api/data/query/logistics/trade-flows
data://logistics/trade-flows
data.logistics.trade_flows
get_logistics_trade_flows
Commodity import/export exposure
live/api/data/query/trade/commodity-exposure
data://trade/commodity-exposure
data.trade.commodity_exposure
get_trade_commodity_exposure
Domestic market and pass-through signals
live/api/data/query/markets/domestic-signals
data://markets/domestic-signals
data.markets.domestic_signals
get_domestic_market_signals
Not for: Freight price shock estimates, Insurance premium changes, Country import/export disruption estimates, Live commodity-specific import disruption
Displacement exposure claims
claim_readyUNHCR annual population context and verified movement-flow observations are available; row-specific movement claims must use movement-flow rows, not annual stock.
Active source handles
UNHCR displacement populations
live/api/data/query/displacement/population
data://displacement/population
data.displacement.population
get_displacement_population
Movement flow monitoring
live/api/data/query/displacement/movement-flows
data://displacement/movement-flows
data.displacement.movement_flows
get_movement_flow_monitoring
Not for: Summing overlapping movement reports without deduplication, Movement trends without multiple comparable observations
Funding Shape
Top Donors
Japan, Government of
$14.1M
Governments / 3 flows
European Commission's Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection Department
$14.1M
Multilateral Organizations / 35 flows
Central Emergency Response Fund
$12.0M
Pooled Funds / 13 flows
Germany, Government of
$8.7M
Governments / 3 flows
Norway, Government of
$3.4M
Governments / 5 flows
Denmark, Government of
$2.0M
Governments / 4 flows
Multi-donor flexible humanitarian contribution (UNICEF Global Humanitarian Thematic)
$1.0M
Multilateral Organizations / 5 flows
Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA)
$732K
Governments / 2 flows
United States Fund for UNICEF
$158K
Private Organizations / 1 flows
UNICEF National Committees
$73K
Private Organizations / 2 flows
Sectors
Health
$15.5M
Unspecified
$10.9M
Food Security
$10.9M
Protection
$7.2M
Multipurpose Cash
$5.9M
Water Sanitation Hygiene
$3.3M
Education
$1.8M
Other
$333K
Protection - Child Protection
$269K
Multi-sector
$46K
Funding History
2000
$3.4M
2001
$1.2M
2002
$5.7M
2003
$70.5M
2004
$130.2M
2005
$5.0M
2006
$7.2M
2007
$1.6M
2008
$2.1M
2009
$3.5M
2010
$7.3M
2011
$15.6M
2012
$41.1M
2013
$17.2M
2014
$11.2M
2015
$10.5M
2016
$29.6M
2017
$28.8M
2018
$18.2M
2019
$28.8M
2020
$110.1M
2021
$141.5M
2022
$37.6M
2023
$59.0M
2024
$39.4M
2025
$35.9M
2026
$56.3M
2027
$2.8M
FX And Needs
UNORE
1,452,294.092
effective Jul 13, 2026
Spot
1,152,906.9657
market reference
USDT Mid
Pending
Pending UNORE gap
USDC Mid
Pending
Pending UNORE gap
Humanitarian Needs
missing- In Need
- Pending
- Targeted
- Pending
- Reached
- Pending
Displacement Context
UNHCR annual population stock / latest 2025 / 8 country rows
- Iran Refugees
- 770.5K
- Iran Returns
- 1.4M
- Regional IDPs
- 9.8M
- Refugees + Asylum
- 5.9M
| Country | Refugees + Asylum | IDPs | Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
SYR Syrian Arab Republic | 14K | 5.5M | 0 |
AFG Afghanistan | 21.3K | 3.2M | 0 |
TUR Türkiye | 2.5M | 0 | 556K |
IRN Iran, Islamic Republic of | 770.5K | 0 | 1.4M |
PAK Pakistan | 1.3M | 0 | 558.4K |
IRQ Iraq | 345.7K | 997.3K | 37.1K |
LBN Lebanon | 542.8K | 64.4K | 465.6K |
JOR Jordan | 444.3K | 0 | 256.9K |
Displacement Surface
data://displacement/population
data.displacement.population
get_displacement_population
funding.severity
data.sync_log.list
/api/data/query/displacement/population
This is annual UNHCR population stock. It is useful context for exposure, but live border crossings, evacuations, and new displacement flows still need a dedicated source contract.
Annual Commodity Exposure
UN Comtrade / latest 2025 / 75 rows / 5 countries
| Country | Commodity | Channel | Year | Value | Benchmarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PAK Pakistan / WLD | Mineral fuels, oils and distillation products HS 27 / imports | energy | 2025 | $16.7B | BRENT_FUTURES, WTI_FUTURES, DUBAI, HENRY_HUB, TTF, LNG_JAPAN |
PAK Pakistan / WLD | Refined petroleum products HS 2710 / imports | fuel | 2025 | $6.0B | HEATING_OIL_FUTURES, RBOB_GASOLINE_FUTURES, BRENT_FUTURES |
PAK Pakistan / WLD | Crude petroleum HS 2709 / imports | energy | 2025 | $5.8B | BRENT_FUTURES, WTI_FUTURES, DUBAI |
PAK Pakistan / WLD | Animal, vegetable or microbial fats and oils HS 15 / imports | food | 2025 | $4.4B | PALM_OIL, SOYBEAN_OIL |
PAK Pakistan / WLD | Petroleum gases HS 2711 / imports | fuel | 2025 | $4.0B | NATGAS_FUTURES, TTF, LNG_JAPAN |
PAK Pakistan / WLD | Pharmaceutical products HS 30 / imports | health | 2025 | $840.6M | None |
PAK Pakistan / WLD | Fertilisers HS 31 / imports | fertiliser | 2025 | $680.6M | UREA, DAP |
PAK Pakistan / WLD | Computing machinery HS 8471 / imports | operational_inputs | 2025 | $534.5M | None |
PAK Pakistan / WLD | Compound fertilisers HS 3105 / imports | fertiliser | 2025 | $523.6M | DAP |
PAK Pakistan / WLD | Cereals HS 10 / imports | food | 2025 | $141.0M | WHEAT, RICE, MAIZE |
SSD South Sudan / WLD | Pharmaceutical products HS 30 / imports | health | 2025 | $74.4M | None |
PAK Pakistan / WLD | Semi-finished products of iron or non-alloy steel HS 7207 / imports | operational_inputs | 2025 | $69.7M | None |
Exposure Surface
data://trade/commodity-exposure
data.trade.commodity_exposure
get_trade_commodity_exposure
data.sync_log.list
/api/data/query/trade/commodity-exposure
- Focus Rows
- 0
- Focus
- IRN
- World Totals
- Yes
- Partner Detail
- No
Annual HS-code trade rows are structural exposure context. They do not verify live supply disruption, domestic availability, household prices, or humanitarian access constraints.
Upstream Commodity Benchmarks
World Bank Pink Sheet / latest Jun 1, 2026 / 9K observations
Crude oil, Brent
BRENT / energy
$85.40 ($/bbl)
Jun 1, 2026 / YoY
Crude oil, Dubai
DUBAI / energy
$77.70 ($/bbl)
Jun 1, 2026 / YoY
Natural gas, US
HENRY_HUB / energy
$3.15 ($/mmbtu)
Jun 1, 2026 / YoY
Natural gas, Europe
TTF / energy
$15.17 ($/mmbtu)
Jun 1, 2026 / YoY
Urea
UREA / fertiliser
$453 ($/mt)
Jun 1, 2026 / YoY
DAP
DAP / fertiliser
$784 ($/mt)
Jun 1, 2026 / YoY
Wheat, US HRW
WHEAT / food
$286 ($/mt)
Jun 1, 2026 / YoY
Rice, Thai 5%
RICE / food
$494 ($/mt)
Jun 1, 2026 / YoY
Liquefied natural gas, Japan
LNG_JAPAN / energy
$12.83 ($/mmbtu)
Jun 1, 2026 / YoY
Maize
MAIZE / food
$197 ($/mt)
Jun 1, 2026 / YoY
Palm oil
PALM_OIL / food
$1,105 ($/mt)
Jun 1, 2026 / YoY
Crude oil, WTI
WTI / energy
$81.90 ($/bbl)
Jun 1, 2026 / YoY
Commodity Surface
data://commodities/benchmarks
data.commodities.benchmarks
get_commodity_benchmarks
/api/data/query/commodity-benchmarks
- Rows
- 9K
- Available
- Yes
Logistics Exposure
IMF PortWatch / latest Jul 5, 2026 / 19.2K route observations / 201 trade-flow rows
Strait of Hormuz
chokepoint6
- Vessels
- 34
- Tankers
- 17
- 7D Avg
- 32.1
- Baseline
- 9.7
Jul 5, 2026 / capacity 1.1M
Bab el-Mandeb Strait
chokepoint4
- Vessels
- 34
- Tankers
- 13
- 7D Avg
- 34
- Baseline
- 36.1
Jul 5, 2026 / capacity 1.8M
Suez Canal
chokepoint1
- Vessels
- 46
- Tankers
- 20
- 7D Avg
- 42.1
- Baseline
- 40.4
Jul 5, 2026 / capacity 1.8M
Cape of Good Hope
chokepoint7
- Vessels
- 115
- Tankers
- 19
- 7D Avg
- 95.9
- Baseline
- 94.1
Jul 5, 2026 / capacity 6.6M
Logistics Surface
data://logistics/chokepoints
data.logistics.chokepoints
get_logistics_chokepoints
/api/data/query/logistics/chokepoints
data://logistics/trade-flows
data.logistics.trade_flows
get_logistics_trade_flows
data.sync_log.list
/api/data/query/logistics/trade-flows
data://trade/commodity-exposure
data.trade.commodity_exposure
get_trade_commodity_exposure
data.sync_log.list
/api/data/query/trade/commodity-exposure
- Route Rows
- 19.2K
- Trade Rows
- 201
- Route Data
- Yes
- Trade Data
- Yes
- Latest Route
- Jul 5, 2026
- Latest Trade
- Jul 3, 2026
- Routes
- 7 routes
- Coverage
- country_maritime_trade_exposure
Vessel counts, capacity, country trade-flow exposure, and annual commodity exposure are live as context; freight rates, insurance risk, port throughput, verified disruption, and domestic pass-through remain qualifying gaps.
Pipeline Readiness
| Source | Channel | State | Observation | Next Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
FTS funding flows OCHA Financial Tracking Service | funding | live go-live | Obs 75 Latest 2027 | Agent-ready |
HAPI humanitarian needs HDX HAPI | needs | missing go-live | Sync completed 554 rows Jul 13, 05:31 UTC | HAPI humanitarian-needs sync completed, but the latest import has no row for the selected country/year; confirm HAPI crisis coverage or add a complementary needs source before making needs claims. |
UN operational exchange rates United Nations Treasury | fx | live go-live | Obs 1 Latest 2026-07-13 | Agent-ready |
Market spot FX rates Market spot FX providers | fx | live go-live | Obs 1 Latest 2026-07-13 | Agent-ready |
Stablecoin and P2P FX routes P2P market sources | fx | live go-live | Obs 1 Latest 2026-07-13 | Agent-ready |
FX purchasing power spreads MarketImpact | fx | live go-live | Obs 1 Latest 2026-07-13 | Agent-ready |
IPC food insecurity Integrated Food Security Phase Classification | food | missing go-supporting | Sync completed 130 rows Jul 12, 04:30 UTC | IPC food-insecurity sync completed, but the latest import has no row for the selected country/year; confirm IPC country coverage or add a complementary food-security source before making IPC claims. |
UNHCR displacement populations UNHCR | displacement | live go-supporting | Obs 8 Latest 2025 | Use annual UNHCR stock for exposure context; use movement-flow-monitoring rows for live border-crossing, return, evacuation, or new-displacement claims. |
Food prices and market baskets HDX HAPI / WFP VAM, FEWS NET, FSNAU, JMMI | food | current go-live | Obs 30 Latest 2026-03-15 Sync completed 732.6K rows Jun 12, 18:52 UTC | Keep HAPI/WFP food-price rows fresh; add basket aggregation before making household food-basket claims. |
Global commodity and energy benchmarks World Bank Pink Sheet, Yahoo Finance | energy | live go-live | Obs 9K Latest 2026-06-01 | Port domestic fuel, EIA/FRED refined products, and country coverage reports after the global benchmark surface is monitored. |
Domestic fuel price baselines World Bank Global Fuel Prices Database | energy | live source-contract-live | Obs 115 Latest 2025-03-01 | Add newer national or regional fuel sources before making live fuel-price, shortage, or pass-through claims. |
Freight, ports, and chokepoints IMF PortWatch | trade | live partial-go-live | Obs 19.2K Latest 2026-07-05 | Keep chokepoint monitoring separate from freight-price and country-exposure claims; add licensed freight/insurance indicators before asserting price impacts. |
Freight and insurance price indicators Baltic Exchange, Drewry, Freightos, insurance and market-risk reports | trade | empty source-contract-live | Obs 0 | Load domestic_market_signals rows with channel freight or insurance before claiming freight-rate or war-risk insurance shocks. |
Country trade-flow exposure IMF PortWatch; UN Comtrade and World Bank WITS planned | trade | live partial-go-live | Obs 201 Latest 2026-07-03 | Join PortWatch trade-flow rows to Comtrade/WITS commodity dependence before making commodity-specific exposure or market-impact claims. |
Commodity import/export exposure UN Comtrade | trade | live partial-go-live | Obs 75 Latest 2025 | Add WITS/FAOSTAT/USDA production and consumption dependence, plus domestic market evidence, before asserting commodity-specific humanitarian impact. |
Domestic market and pass-through signals WFP VAM, FEWS NET, JMMI/REACH, market reports, freight and insurance sources | markets | live source-contract-live | Obs 682 Latest 2026-03-15 | Agent-ready |
Movement flow monitoring UNHCR, IOM DTM, IDMC, national border and evacuation reports | displacement | live source-contract-live | Obs 1 Latest 2026-06-06 | Agent-ready |
Remittances and payment corridors World Bank | payments | qualifying legacy-qualify | Pending | Port only after corridor-level research questions are defined with stablecoin/FX use cases. |
ReliefWeb evidence and research corpus ReliefWeb | evidence | not_configured go-live | Obs 0 | Configure a ReliefWeb-approved RELIEFWEB_APPNAME, run /api/cron/reliefweb?country=IRN, and verify citation-ready documents are available. |
Analyst-vetted evidence documents MarketImpact analyst import from trusted URLs, PDFs, and reports | evidence | live go-live | Obs 5 Latest 2026-06-11T00:00:00Z | Agent-ready |
GDELT media evidence pulse GDELT Project DOC 2.0 | evidence | live go-live | Obs 900 Latest 2026-07-09T00:00:00Z | Use GDELT for evidence discovery while ReliefWeb awaits RELIEFWEB_APPNAME; add a verified incident/access source before claiming conflict-event coverage. |
Verified conflict and access events WHO SSA, ACLED, Insecurity Insight, ReliefWeb/field-verified event extraction | evidence | live source-contract-live | Obs 32 Latest 2026-04-04 | Agent-ready |
Evidence Corpus
Vetted 5 / ReliefWeb 0 / GDELT 900
ReliefWeb
0 sources / latest Pending
Vetted Evidence
1 sources / latest Jun 11, 2026
Iran-Afghanistan - Returns Emergency Response #30
Jun 11, 2026UNHCR Operational Data Portal / verified / high
displacement_context · returns · deportations · protection · border_monitoring
UNHCR/IOM returns evidence for Afghan returns and deportations from Iran, published 11 June 2026 and reporting cumulative 2026 returns as of 6 June. Use for cited returns, deportation, protection, and assistance context; do not treat this document row as a typed movement-flow observation.
UNHCR Middle East Situation: Emergency Update #20 as of 9 June 2026
Jun 9, 2026UNHCR Operational Data Portal / verified / high
regional_context · displacement_context · preparedness · funding_context
UNHCR regional emergency update for the Middle East situation, including Iran in the affected locations. Use for regional humanitarian context, preparedness, displacement baseline, and funding-dependence framing; do not treat this document row as a verified conflict-event stream.
UNHCR Iran: Factsheet - June 2026
Jun 3, 2026UNHCR Operational Data Portal / verified / high
country_context · displacement_context · protection · service_access
UNHCR Iran country factsheet published 3 June 2026. Use for Iran refugee-hosting, protection, services, and operating-context citation; do not treat this document row as live movement, access, or market evidence.
UNHCR Iran Protection Concerns Among Afghan Refugees in Iran - Helpline and Field Insights #2 May 2026
May 19, 2026UNHCR Operational Data Portal / verified / high
protection · needs_context · service_access · field_insights
UNHCR protection-concerns document based on helpline and field insights for Afghan refugees in Iran, published 19 May 2026. Use for cited protection-risk and priority-needs context; do not treat this document row as a verified incident, live movement-flow, or access-constraint event.
Iran (Islamic Republic of) - Emergency fact sheet April 2026
May 13, 2026UNHCR Operational Data Portal / verified / high
country_context · displacement_context · protection · humanitarian_needs
UNHCR Iran emergency factsheet published 13 May 2026. The document states that Iran hosts refugees and others in need of international protection, mainly Afghans, and frames protection risks and humanitarian needs amid the crisis. Use for cited humanitarian context; do not treat this document row as a live flow, incident, price, or access dataset.
GDELT Media Pulse
674 domains / latest Jul 9, 2026
Após ameaças de Trump , EUA lançam novos ataques contra Irã - Último momento
Jul 9, 2026ansabrasil.com.br / Brazil
Expected US Presidential Contender Rahm Emanuel Delivers Speech Warning Israel of Potential Isolation
Jul 9, 2026algemeiner.com / Israel
Trump unexpectedly switches back to old Air Force One after safety questions about new Qatari jet
Jul 9, 2026independent.co.uk / United Kingdom
Cene nafte opet skočile zbog novih tenzija na Bliskom istoku
Jul 9, 2026naslovi.net / Serbia
Avrupada Rus hayaleti ve yeniden yeni bir NATO ! - Hediye Levent
Jul 9, 2026evrensel.net / Turkey
data://evidence/reliefweb
data.evidence.reliefweb
get_reliefweb_evidence
data://evidence/vetted-documents
data.evidence.vetted_documents
get_vetted_evidence_documents
data://evidence/gdelt
data.evidence.gdelt
get_gdelt_evidence
FX Pipeline Runs
spot_fx
Jul 13, 2026, 06:02 AM
spreads
Jul 13, 2026, 06:12 AM
unore
Jul 13, 2026, 06:00 AM
usdt_p2p
Jul 13, 2026, 06:07 AM
Blocking Gaps
Cited evidence corpus
Agents need analyst-vetted or ReliefWeb/research documents for defended narrative claims; GDELT can support media discovery while curated humanitarian evidence is pending.
Import analyst-vetted reports now, keep GDELT media evidence fresh, then set RELIEFWEB_APPNAME when approved and verify ReliefWeb documents are flowing.
Conflict and access events
Verified conflict/access event rows are live; keep claims tied to row-specific event types, verification status, and source scope.
Keep verified event rows refreshed, then add source-family coverage only where licensing and methodology support comparable trend claims.
Displacement and border flows
UNHCR population context and verified movement-flow observations are live; keep movement claims tied to row-specific observations and avoid summing overlapping snapshots.
Keep movement snapshots refreshed, then add comparable observations only when source periods and populations can be deduplicated.
Energy and fuel-cost shock
Global commodity benchmarks and historical domestic fuel-price baselines are live, but live retail fuel, availability, and pass-through evidence remain incomplete.
Add newer national or regional fuel-price sources before making live fuel-price, shortage, or pass-through claims.
Freight, ports, and chokepoints
PortWatch route and country maritime trade-flow exposure plus annual Comtrade commodity-import exposure are live as context, but freight prices, insurance risk, port throughput, and domestic pass-through remain incomplete.
Add licensing-safe freight/insurance indicators and domestic market evidence before asserting shipping price, supply-disruption, or household price impacts.
Food security and market baskets
HAPI/WFP market-price observations are current for the selected country/year, but IPC acute food-insecurity rows are not current.
Load current IPC rows before making acute food-insecurity claims, and keep food-price rows framed as market observations.
Payments and remittance corridors
FX stress is live, but corridor pricing and remittance flows are not yet connected to the aid-delivery question.
Define the Iran/Gulf/South Asia corridor questions before porting World Bank remittance tables.